The Future of Intelligence Analysis with the U.S. Intelligence Community and the impact of AI and Open Source Panel
Vincent Bridgeman, Senior Vice President of National Security Services, Redhorse Corporation
Dana Madsen, National Intelligence Manager for Cyber, ODNI, Cyber Threat Intelligence Integration Center
Rhett Skiles, Deputy Assistant Secretary for Cyber and Emerging Technology Intelligence Office of Intelligence and Analysis, Department of Treasury
Data Fusion, AI, and Trusting Data
Skiles:
-It’s absolutely key. The sector that we’re charged with and adopting AI, we’re very concerned about what the adversary is doing to disrupt and data poison. The data in AI needs to be safely stored and that becomes its own vulnerability.
-Adequate consideration of the source. It’s our job to help the policy makers with source description. Where did the information come from? We can’t do that as well now with the amount of information we have.
ML
Bridgeman:
-I think it’s really two big concepts, overing transparency and ensuring performance. Transparency starts with the risks but also has a very well documented list of training and using your model, bringing in the use of the model. Models need to be continuously monitored.
[End]
Intelligence Acquisition: Strategies, Priorities & Opportunities Panel
Margaret Augustine, Senior Acquisition Executive, CIA
Mark DeVido, Director, Office of Contracts, NRO
Judith Oxman, Deputy Senior Acquisition Executive, Office of the Chief Financial Officer, DIA
Susan Williams, Client Executive, National Security, AT&T
AQ Priorities
Augustine:
-Everything China is a priority of the directorate. Everything from data scientists, any emerging technologies across the board, cyber, infrastructure, speed…
-Challenging the status quo, we can’t afford to keep up with these priorities if we’re not challenging and introducing technologies and altering requirements.
-Classification is another thing we’re focused on. Pandemic showed us that we need to look at alternative ways to get things done. Looking at classifications and lowering some…sponsorship for emerging businesses is something we’re focused on as well.
DeVido:
-Speed, every mission manager we deal with wants speed. How do you balance multiple mission authorities and still having the proper due diligence?
-We highly value industry partnership. We host a variety of events throughout the year. We do a series of one-on-one meetings. Forums for line contracting officers and needing to have early discussions and involvements.
Oxman:
-We’re very focused on people and hiring and making sure everyone has the appropriate training.
-We’re looking at how we can implement newer technologies in the AI/ML world. It gets painful to get contracts closed out. We would like to do things better and faster.
-New AQ management system cradle to grave, we’re working this and looking at lowering classifications for certain parts.
Industry Opportunities
Augustine:
-Bring your best capabilities forward. We do solicitations but we don’t know what we don’t know. Draft RFPs, white papers, capabilities briefings, have those conversations with us to enlighten us.
DeVido:
-We’re concerned about global threats, Russia, China, growth of China’s commercial space sector.
-We’re going from dozens of satellites to hundreds of satellites in the next couple years. We’re looking at AI/ML.
-We’re working on getting satellites into space and evolving over the next several years. We’d love to talk to you.
Oxman:
-We’re looking to have another industry day in the February timeframe. We’re going to match industry partners with government requirement owners because we don’t sometimes know how to best use technology to maximize our advantage.
-January we’re going to ask for white papers to come in. We need to work with you all on other transactions.
OTAs
DeVido:
-We’re in the beginning of a third year of a pilot using OTAs. I’ve really liked them. We’ve issued 14+ solicitations.
-Technical focus really like the flexibility.
-We’ve developed internal and external training for this. We have a workforce aligned. For us they’ve worked well. We’ve put in some governance on the use and we want to make sure things are going well.
-About 60% of our OTA awards have gone to nontraditional vendors. We’ve awarded, had prototypes delivered, some have gone to phase two. Overwhelmingly the response has been positive.
Government Shutdown
DeVido:
-We’re tracking this. We have congressional folks who have regular dialog. We’ve all been through this before and we’ve already drafted guidance. We’re waiting for final guidance from OMB,
-Notice to industry partners on classified ARC, we will post on there.
Automating AQ Process
Augustine:
-We’re looking at AQ strategy and requirements two years in advance to get processes started early. It shouldn’t be a surprise when a contract is ending come 2030.
-We’re doing assistance for building requirements and completing dialogs much earlier and in advance so that before contracts end we’re ready to go.
DeVido:
-Over the past year we’ve piloted four different technologies including AI to help us with proposal evaluation. We’re looking at this in the coming year.
-It’s a process that takes time. For NRO we have a robust enterprise that helps us with requirements definition. We have a capability to help accelerate key AQ and this is something we’re really getting after in FY24.
Oxman:
-We are making it a point to look out 18 months before and help with upfront preparation so when RFP time comes around we’re already ready to go.
[End]
Staying Ahead of the Adversary: IT Modernization & Tech Adoption Panel
Doug Cossa, Chief Information Officer, DIA
Ryon Klotz, Deputy CIO for Information Technology Enterprise, CIA
Dr. Adele Merritt, Chief Information Officer, Office of the Intelligence Community, ODNI
Technology Evolution
Merritt:
-When we look at technology there is slow evolution, then all of a sudden someone gets a new idea and the world changes just like that.
-We’re driving the community to be more data centric through the evolution of AI.
-I’m looking at how AI is changing the core foundational infrastructure, how it’s creating legacy IT in our systems, and I’m looking at what everyone might be calling for tomorrow.
Klotz:
-Really there are seams overtime. Cloud services as an example, there were years before where we were all trying to figure out how to deliver automation with services on top… It’s opening doors for cutting edge technologies.
-AI in particular will be an accelerator. I think it’s faster iteration rather than a big bang.
Cossa:
-We’re all over the world supporting customers and expanding capabilities.
-Technology in this community swings back and forth. Benefits of open source. All the technologies that come into play with the collection of open source and distributing. That’s really changed the paradigm.
[End]
Afternoon Keynote
Suzanne White, Deputy Director, DIA
Partnerships
-DIA relies heavily on its partnerships to solve challenges. DIA needs your assistance. We’ve increased our engagements with industry. We’ve also improved our RFP process to make sure those with ideas can more quickly communicate with us. We’ve simplified the platform. It’s more user friendly and has eased the submission process.
-We’re working to create partners across DIU, NASA, Univ. Maryland, MIT, federal laboratories…
-Knowledge and speed is paramount in our business and we must not feel pressured to know it all. We cannot afford to work problem sets solely in government silos.
Adversaries
-Cyber crimes are increasing.
-Strategic competition, do not interpret this label as our challenges being less serious than they would be in conflict. They are very serious.
-We’ve watched as China increases its influence across the globe.
-Russia, we’ve watched them invade Ukraine again, killing thousands. PRC is watching, learning, and planning very carefully.
-Disinformation, our adversaries are deploying it more and more. There’s no limit to how far they’ll go. We’re working to expose this.
-Our nation's leaders, policy makers, allies, and partners deserve to know the truth.
Biggest Challenge
-Balancing requirements coming our way and the resources we have available. There is no question that DIA’s capabilities are in high demand whether it’s China threat, Russia threat, Russian activities in Ukraine, it all comes with the appeal for understanding. Our resources are not growing with the demand signal.
-Industry’s role in this, things like AI, anything that helps us do our job more quickly, that will be completely valuable.
China and AI Competition
-How do we keep pace? Are we keeping pace? Are we ahead?
-It’s not easy to determine this but it is something we’re continuously watching and we try to inform policy makers on where we think we stand.
NK and Russia Arms Deal Talks
-It’s very concerning. We’re watching everything Russia is doing. Russia is reaching a level of desperation. We’ll continue to observe and watch this. NK as we know is not the only country Russia is seeking supplies from. We’re watching closely. We flag whatever we can see.
China and INDOPACOM
-We try not to specifically talk about INDOPACOM. We try to shape the narrative and influence reactions to what China is doing in the region. What is China doing? What are the threats? We try to highlight this and expose it. What is going on in the Pacific? We talk about this every day.
-The combatant commands all feel like they need more attention and we get that. We work to partner as best we can.
[End]
NSSA SpaceTIme w/ Eric Desautels
On Need for Space Regulation
-Really that is the one limitation: no placement of nuclear weapons or other weapons of mass destruction in orbit or on celestial bodies.
-There hasn’t been an agreement around what we should be doing in space, whether from a legally binding perspective or from a political commitment perspective.
-The limitation mentioned emphasizes the need for more comprehensive regulations that can ensure that space remains a zone for peaceful exploration and use, devoid of weapons of mass destruction.
On Criteria for Legally Binding Arms Control Agreement
-If we were to enter into a legally binding Arms Control agreement we could only do it if it was in International Security interests, if it applied equitably to all countries, and if it was verifiable.
-The U.S. government's stance elucidates the prerequisites for any space arms control agreement, signifying the importance of international security, fairness, and verifiability in such accords.
On Competition and Conflict in Outer Space
-As competition has continued to increase in outer space, we have sought to create a venue in the UN that brings together all states to really start talking about how we reduce the risk of conflict occurring in outer space.
-The rise in competition signifies the mounting tensions and potential for conflicts in space, necessitating international dialogues and agreements to reduce the risk of confrontations in the extraterrestrial domain.
On Diplomatic Efforts and Open Dialogue
-We decided to create at the UN what is known as an open-ended working group non-governmental organization.
-We wanted to go down this path because we felt that norms of responsible behavior were a better approach.
-The establishment of open-ended working groups at the UN showcases the endeavor to foster diplomatic ties and open conversations to reach mutual agreements on space activities.
On Defining Norms of Responsible Behavior
-The third meeting was proposals on possible norms of responsible behavior and then the fourth meeting was devoted to writing a report summarizing the conclusions.
-It's a lot easier to observe a behavior than it is to understand intent or capabilities.
-The emphasis on proposing norms of responsible behavior indicates the significance of having clear and agreed-upon standards to ensure the responsible conduct of space activities by all space-faring nations.
On Iterative Process and Development of International Law
-It took us some time to get a UN resolution passed but then over the course of 2022 and 2023 the open-ended working group met in Geneva twice a year over those two years.
-We could make advances in terms of getting agreement on norms much faster than we could in trying to sit down and negotiate a legally binding instrument.
-The ongoing efforts and meetings depict the evolving nature of space laws and the continual adaptation and agreement required to develop internationally accepted norms for outer space.
On Prevention of Arms Race in Outer Space
-The discussions initiated by the UN in 1978 highlight the longstanding international concern about the militarization of space and the collective desire to prevent an outer space arms race.
On Challenges in Definition and Interpretation
-The difficulties in defining what constitutes a weapon in space and understanding the true intentions behind space activities highlight the complexities in formulating and interpreting space norms and laws.
On International Participation and Collaboration
-We had over 70 countries show up each time for these conversations on... existing international law... [and] lots of discussions around existing implementations of those in the maritime domain for example.
On US Leadership and Proposals for Responsible Space Behavior
-It is actually the first time that the United States as an interagency came together and presented a set of norms of responsible behavior. This submission by us is actually the first time you start seeing us starting to Define what harmful interference could look like.
On Emphasis on Debris Management and Responsible Testing
-I also of course importantly we talked about debris... The debris from the Russian ASAT test is a huge problem and continuing to conduct those types of the base set tests we think would be a problem.
On Cross-Regional Cooperation and Consensus Building
-One of the papers submitted at the end was a 39 country cross Regional paper supporting norms of responsible behavior... it really was cross-Regional grouping with Brazil and other African countries all signing up to this.
Ongoing Negotiations and Future Discussions
-So the open-ended working group has ended... We will be meeting in October at the United Nations first Committee in an effort to re-establish the open-ended working group mandate.
On Challenges and Opposition
-The Russians are not particularly happy with the way the open-ended working group went and so they're going to offer a competing Resolution Group that will call for a legally binding instrument on the prevention of an arms race in outer space.
On Interagency Cooperation within the US
-This is not something that is just the state department out there alone... trying to impose on the Department of Defense they contributed to all of our papers and cleared on our guidance so this is something that we see as being a cooperation with them.
On Recognition of Differing International Perspectives
-We have differing definitions of things like rendezvous and proximity operations… and then they go out and conduct activities that are contrary to that understanding then that gives them an opportunity to say okay, you know our position.
Assessment of Progress and Achievements
-If you had told me in 2020 when we started this process that in 2022 the US would run a space resolution at the UN on a single issue and would get $155 votes, I would have just laughed you out of the room because that would have seemed impossible.
Q&A
On the Struggle for Consensus and Agreement
-We needed all countries in the room to agree to a consensus on the report… Russian obviously has concerns about the Norms of behavior process… they don't feel that Norms are an appropriate way to take these issues forward.
On Varied Approaches and Proposals
-The fact that they are proposing a different approach than what we are proposing is going to make it very challenging. You can't really have two processes going on simultaneously on these issues; many countries would not be able to support something that meant that often on two completely different subjects.
On Commitment to Transparency Measures
-Countries supporting the implementation of certain transparency… countries like China, Iran, and North Korea have agreed that they should do space launch notifications… it's a voluntary commitment, but certainly, they seem to say that it's voluntarily a good idea.
On the Complexity of Merging Varied Proposals
-I think there will be a lot of calls for a merger of the two approaches that we are seeing here at the UN… so there will be a lot of debate."
Space innovation Talk with Ms. Barbara Baker
On International Partnership and Collaboration
-Our shop has grown to 59 Allied partners and so we continuously look to work with our allies and bring on new Partnerships making those connections working requirements for our military equipment.
-We too are really growing not on the foreign military sales but I'm just on International Partnerships where we have been working at space systems command and really putting a huge emphasis on partnership.
-We decided to partner up with Norway, the ministry of Defense of Norway. We teamed up with them and they have worked with Space Norway to procure the bus.
On Innovation and Exploitation of Capabilities
-You were saying you know how else are we growing and I'd say in the military so I like the communication side we too are really growing
-So that we can either exploit their capability or they can exploit ours.
On Resilience through Diversity and Flexibility
-We are going to get to a more resilient architecture if we partner. We'll get there faster so we have an organization and her team is about helping us make the connections with International Partners.
-What could I use to augment or to be an alternative to a GPS system so we did a reverse industry day for p&t and we said come and tell us what is out there.
On Shared Learning and Mutual Growth
-The lessons learned that was shared and we are not new to space operations but it is a different and a new world for Norway and then getting to listen to How We Do Space operations and take those Lessons Learned into how they were building up their off center.
-Joining our two forces together to get more capability out there sooner is a great example of the international collaboration that you and your team are leading.
-How can the US partner with another country utilize their limited space budget to enhance both countries capabilities or multi-country capabilities for the success of that specific Mission.
On Cross-Sharing and Collaboration
-There are a lot of processes for forums…to allow cross-sharing between the PS and to allow that cross-sharing with the space integration office.
-Those Avenues in order to explain it so add space systems command they created an operation they brought the acquirers and all of the operational community and Star Command into a form.
On Speed and Resiliency in Delivering Capabilities
-So that we are getting at the best we can focused on speed and resiliency and delivering our capabilities.
-How that system is going to be integrated, tested, trained on, and then shielded and then used operationally
On Program Integration and Development
-The space development agency is another key partner there…having that discussion of that against or a cross all those multiple organizations.
-Space training and Readiness commands are establishing their tactics development conference and their concept design conference or CDC
On Operational Engagement and Communication
-Our operational command supports that program integration Council which sparks US space command and that's how also when we're talking about the architecture and working with the requirements we are also getting the opinion of the operational community into that form
-Making sure we have clear lines of communication of how that system is going to be integrated, tested, trained on, and then shielded and then used operationally.
On Proactive Planning and Program Development
-Being very purposeful in the very beginning of a program and not thinking about training at the tail end, not thinking about logistics and testing at the time but thinking about that upfront in your program.
-We've been very purposeful to make certain that we have focused the strategic need onto what it needs
On Agile and Responsive System Development
-A very small system, very agile, being able to get that capability
-Allows us to go faster, allows us to get that proliferation that we need for resiliency.
On Customization and Optimization of Systems
-Our technical users don't need the same rigor or requirements or usage that we need to do or bake into for a Strategic Mission
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