NSSA FY24 Space Budget Forum

NSSA Budget Forum 13 September, 2023 Mr. Mike Tierney, Chief of legislative affairs, NSSA & Consultant, Velos Mr. Todd Harrison, Managing Director, Metrea Strategic Insights Mr. Todd Harrison On Uncertainty Regarding Government Shutdown -All indications are we are barreling down the road towards a government shutdown. -I say we are barreling down this road right now. I am not seeing any viable offerings at this point now that doesn't mean a government shutdown. -To end that shutdown after however many days, weeks or months they end up passing a CR. On the Historical Perspective of Budget Issues -I'm looking at this from a historical perspective, you know the purple bars in the budget defense. -More often than not if you look down historically the NDAA is typically enacted about 90 days or so after the start of the fiscal year. -The last time that we had a government shutdown that affected defense [...] was when the budget caps had gone into effect already. -I've got the data on when defensive Appropriations were enacted all the way back to fiscal year 68 On Political Disagreements and Tensions -This year we had an early standoff over the debt ceiling. -While we had a deal on paper not everyone in the house was happy with that deal. -It's looking more and more like Speaker McCarthy will not be able to get the votes to pass Appropriations through the house. On Concerns over Defense Appropriations -A lot is on the table here, lots at risk. -The record to beat right now on the longest delay in getting to full year defense Appropriations is May 5th. -We have never had a full year of continuing resolution. On Budget and Appropriations -This year we had an early standoff over the debt ceiling and I think when we did this back in the spring after the budget requested the budget got an agreement on the top line for defense for the next two years. -Usually what's holding up Appropriations at least in the past 10-15 years is getting to an agreement on the overall framework for the budget for that year, particularly the top line for defense and nondefense in the discretionary budget. Mr. Mike Tierney On Consistent Political Support and Its Changes -Really the universal political support kind of provided the fuel for this year-over-year growth however we're starting to see maybe that is starting to come to an end. On Program Funding and Appropriation Concerns -The reductions are being motivated by some substantial concerns being articulated by the appropriators not just this year but over prior fiscal years over the overall portfolio management. -Budget continues to include serious shortfalls, disconnects, and does not fully fund several core programs. -Some minor cuts from the Senate appropriators to the procurement line but when you really talk about the size and scope I still think they'll be able to get the 10 launches that they're seeking in the request. On Criticism and Oversight from Legislative Bodies -Seeing and noting substantial increases but this is really kind of indicative of language and it's kind of consistent on a year-to-year basis from the Appropriations Committee. -Maybe it's not just the hack, right, maybe it's just the house but the center appropriators provided almost a very similar rationale establishing the year-over-year substantial increases of 15% increase and a clear statement that that is no longer happening. On the Complexity of Space Force Budgeting -Inside of OSD like DARPA space programs and Technology pretty obvious so maybe satcom lines same with Army Air Force support to US space command so we kind of aggregate all of those but again officially space force kind of tracks the others are best effort. -Really the universal political support kind of provided the fuel for this year over year growth... however, we're starting to see that maybe that is starting to come to an end On the Evolution of Political and Financial Environment -This honeymoon that the space force and the space budget has had with the hills appears to be somewhat over rather than substantial year-over-year increases we're seeing actually reductions by the appropriators across both house and Senate appropriators to this portfolio. On Potential Government Shutdown and Its Implications -All indications are we are barreling down the road towards a government shutdown. -We are headed towards that uncertain future now, not sure how we're going to get out of it. On Legislative Differences and Intentions -There's always going to be differences between appropriators and authorizers; there's always going to be differences between the House and the Senate. That's the kind of political friction that the framers absolutely intended to have in our systems. On Macro vs Micro Factors in Management -Not just because of the political climate and the general fiscal climate...but this is just organic to the space force and DOD management of the space domain. On the Rapid Budget Growth of the Space Development Agency -Space development agency... grew to 1.4 billion physical 23 3 billion in fiscal 24... it's gone from 125 million in just... so it's here, it's real, it's here to stay. On Restrictions and Mandates from Appropriators -You must use this NSSL phase two contract... you cannot do delivery on orbit of a capability or a service if that's what you're thinking you can't buy a commercial launch on your own if that's what you're thinking. On Collaborative Approach and Commercial Participation -The enhanced commercial participation in these government-owned launches warrants whatever methodology is determined and kind of an open way to determine that cost sharing basis for use of those governmental facilities so I think commercials on board pentagons on board Hill seems to be on board. On Implementation and Collaboration -It gives more discussion and wherewithal on the implementation side rather than dictating it in law... pentagons on board Hill seems to be on board one of those areas where we can highlight a win. [End]