Wednesday, April 19, 2023
It is great to be back here at the Broadmoor. Of course, I've been to the Space Symposium many times throughout the years, and each time as I come back, I'm reminded of just how small the space community really is. I'm sure most of you, like me, and throughout the week, you see and feel the sense of community - reuniting with old friends - I mean experienced friends. We revel in catching up, discussing the issues of the day. We come to the ballrooms to listen to speakers talk about the latest shifts in technology, challenges, opportunities from the years prior. The sense of community, connection, and continuity is powerful; it's almost a sense of family. And I personally take great comfort in that family-life environment and its continuity. But then, I start to worry, as military leaders are paid to do.
You see, it occurs to me, this very comfort that we enjoy in this continuity can easily lead to complacency. Not the kind of complacency that grows out of apathy - no, this crowd is passionate about space, I see no signs of apathy at all. I'm worried about a far more subtle form of complacency, one that grows out of the comfort of continuity, the comfort of our expertise, the comfort of our successes. What we have done and how we have done it has worked and worked well. But I fear, we think it will work well forever. This form of complacency might allow us to think that our tried-and-true methods, mindsets will be sufficient to address new challenges. Or perhaps, we think the challenges aren't new, not fundamentally different, perhaps we think we're just riding along a predictable linear evolution.
Well, for my perch, I believe this is incorrect. In my estimation, now is not the time to allow for any measure of complacency. And while I'm not the first to use the term, I fundamentally believe we are now at the precipice of a new era in space. This new era comes with new challenges and new opportunities and mandates that we adopt new methods and mindsets to address them. The Space Force, our industry partners, our allies, our interagency team - we must collectively pivot to new ways of doing business. With the new operating environment, to make the case, let me briefly describe some of the changes I've seen in the last 15 years.
In 2008, U.S. military space operations centered around providing exquisite services to our Joint Forces from a series of custom-built satellites, mostly in geosynchronous orbit. Now, the bell ringer Chinese test 20 operational satellites. Additionally, our launch cadence was substantially different. In 2008, we launched seven rockets from the Eastern range, our busiest space lift range. Only one of those seven was a U.S. military satellite, a GPS satellite - GPS 2R, in fact. By the way, the GPS block 2R satellites were put on contract in 1989 and were put on orbit first in 1997 - 8 years from order to orbit, not an uncommon timeline back then.
On the space domain awareness front, in 2008 we had recently established the Joint Space Operations Center, now the C SpOC, where I was fortunate enough to command the first base control squadron, which has since been redesignated the 18th Space Event Squadron. Our main weapon system was tracking around 13,000 objects, 3,000 of which were debris from the 2007 Chinese ASAT test, and around 1,500 were active satellites. The ISS had approximately 130 reportable close approaches with debris, and it executed a single debris avoidance maneuver that year.
In short, the early years of my space career, after I was a 'conehead' (thank you), were focused on mission assurance. A few large satellites, mostly in geosynchronous orbit, were engineered to last. Launches were expensive, so we wanted to get the most out of each one. Satellites were expensive, took years to build, test, make ready for lunch. On orbit, we took great care in optimizing expendables, preserve capacity, protect redundancies built into the systems. We agonized over satellite anomalies, usually implementing the most conservative recovery procedures. We talked about things like mean mission duration, mean time to failure of systems. Those were our measures of effectiveness. We captured these numbers and we built what we called 'sawtooth' charts to help plan how far we could stretch program launches.
The good old days... and I probably just sent a few chills up some spines out there with the 'sawtooth' chart, sorry. But let's see what's transpired in the last 15 years. Let's start with the threat picture. We are seeing an incredibly sophisticated array of threats, including traditional SACCOMs, jammers, and GPS jammers, to even more destabilizing direct ascent ASATs across multiple orbital regimes. Nesting dolls. And it's not just threats against our on-orbit systems, it's the use of systems by our competitors creating threats to the Joint Force and other domains. This has come into such sharp focus in the last couple of years.
For the first time in almost two generations, the U.S. and Allied Forces must contend with space-enabled attack. And new to the mix, our competitors are now coupling space-based ISR with precision-guided munitions. That creates unacceptable risk to our forward-deployed forces. This isn't just an academic or theoretical discussion. We've already seen space-enabled PGM strikes against U.S. forces in 2020.
Now, we're seeing Russian attacks against space capabilities in their ongoing war of aggression in Ukraine, and the PRC are pacing challenge has doubled the number of their satellites just since the US Space Force was established. Now, they have over 700 operational. The dramatic increase in high-quality commercial remote sensing capabilities has enabled a global transparency but also lowered the threshold for support to military targeting by adversaries who previously would not have had access to space-enabled capabilities. What was once state-of-the-art and limited to only a few well-resourced nations is now state-of-the-world, far more accessible, even commonplace. I think you'll agree with me.
Let's also consider the other elements contributing to congestion and competition. For example, the amount of trackable debris has dramatically risen. Of course, irresponsible ASAT tests are to blame, but also because of better sensors like Space Fence. And this last point highlights the need, that despite the needs for increased space awareness, space domain capabilities for space awareness are still lagging.
Since 2008, 53 additional nations have become satellite operators, increasing active satellites on orbit by nearly 500%. We've gone from a handful of launch providers to many, and multiple launches happen each week, not every other month. Payload to launch ratios have gone from 1.5 satellites per rocket to more than 15. Worldwide launches have increased from 67 in 2008 to 179 last year, and the 2023 pace will beat that number. Of note, it's the radical increase in threats to the ISS, now over 1500 close approaches and six maneuvers in the past 12 months, mostly due of course to the irresponsible in late 2021.
Now, I know this crowd is an insider crowd, and you've watched these trends over the years, but what we must recognize is that the rate of change across these variables is accelerating. We are now in the exponential part of the curve in many different areas related to our business. As this chart shows, many of our key metrics have progressed very statically for a 50 years of the Space Age, from '57 to 2007. The Chinese ASAT test was a huge increase in one variable, trackable objects, but this was actually just a step function which leveled off again for about the next 10 to 12 years.
The last couple of years must be characterized differently as we are seeing naturally occurring exponential growth where episodes contribute to the increase, but normal space operations are also causing exponential growth. And because it's not capturing this data, it's worth calling out the increases in just the last year, from 2021 to 2022. Space launches increased 31%, payloads to orbit increased 29%, tracked objects increased by 16%, the number of active payloads went up 37%, one year. Perhaps most concerning, ISS close approach events just last year.
The trend lines for all these metrics continue to show the slope of change is still moving exponentially up. And it's the convergence of the factors and the confluence of key events that I believe has placed us in a new era of the space domain. This new era is one where space is far more contested, US access to space capabilities is not a given. This new era of space is far more congested, will challenge our ability to maintain situational awareness and operate safely in the domain.
The new era in space includes increased competition from adversaries able to execute space-enabled attack on our forces in air, land, and sea. The new era is characterized by a global transparency, widely available to nations who lack the ability to build their own network of space sensors. The new era is driven by rapidly diminishing launch costs and the ability to manufacture small, highly capable satellites with speed and scale.
Satellite production is transitioning from artisan craftsmanship to assembly line manufacturing. Now, instead of taking years to build a single satellite, there are commercial companies producing multiple satellites per day. This is enabling new military, civil, and commercial missions, functions, and activities to be undertaken in orbit. We're also seeing investments in space mobility and logistics, with refueling and life extension programs on the horizon. As this all unfolds, it's imperative that we understand that our traditional ways of addressing challenges must be reevaluated. This will require both a cultural and an organizational shift.
Fundamentally, the linear changes we saw in the past are gone. We're now in the exponential era. Our old ways of reacting to changes, linear in our response, are no longer sufficient. We must change how we frame challenges. Our young leaders get it. Our newest Lieutenant Colonels, even some of our current Squadron commanders, were not on active duty when the Chinese conducted the 2007 ASAT test. About 25% of Space Force officers and about a third of the enlisted cadre have never served in any other branch of the military. Space Force is all they know. These Guardians do not carry around the same baggage from earlier eras of space operations. A contested, congested domain is their normal, and they wonder why institutions are holding on to old ways of thinking and mindsets.
By now, most of us have heard me talk about combat-ready forces, the guardian spirit, and the need to partner to win. However, this is merely a framework to focus and organize our activities. The real work involves approaching these activities in fundamentally different ways, acknowledging that new problems require new answers derived from new thinking. Old ways of doing business will not suffice. To enable the Space Force to be successful in this new era, we must pivot aggressively.
For those in the blue tapes, or for those that interact with Space Force officers, if you haven't challenged your assumptions, your timelines, how you assess mission assurance, or how you conduct verification and validation, I'm sorry to say, but you're part of the 'frozen middle'. I know you didn't intend to become so. Most of us are motivated to see our organization succeed. I'm here today to challenge you to think differently, question existing ways of doing business. We must pivot. This is an imperative for the collective National Security Space Enterprise, our industry partners, and our allies.
The old ways of doing business are too slow, too late to meet the need, and too behind the times to meet the challenges we face. So now, let's talk about what we're doing differently to address the new era of space. In concert with the Department of the Air Force's operational imperatives, we have significantly increased our investments to train forces differently. Our FY24 budget submission includes $300 million to continue development of an operational test and training infrastructure. This will build higher fidelity simulators, advanced ranges for tactics validation, and training against simulated adversaries. The budget includes new ways of providing SATCOM, with $1.3 billion invested, and nearly $2.3 billion invested over the next five years to implement our space lift range of the future.
This investment will be a key enabler to quicken our pace, serving as supporting infrastructure for the rising number of orbital class launch providers. New processes will support increased capacity for military and commercial access to space. Fielding more resilient systems and providing the test and training infrastructure are just key building blocks for fielding combat-ready forces. The most essential ingredient for readiness are our Guardians, which is why the Space Force prioritizes their development and retention.
The 'Guardian Spirit' is a collective representation of what it means to be a member of the Space Force. It describes the most positive attributes of our workforce and personifies our core values of character, courage, connection, and commitment. Those who embody the Guardian Spirit are principled public servants, space-minded warfighters, and bold and collaborative problem solvers. Amplifying this spirit and these traits will build the culture we need for success.
I'm convinced that if we take the necessary steps to amplify the Guardian Spirit, we will attract, develop, empower, and retain the talent needed to accomplish our missions. Recognizing that real change and innovation are more likely to come from our younger Guardians, the Space Force has developed the 'Guardian Field Forum'. Each of our delta-level organizations sends representatives to this forum to discuss the challenges and opportunities they encounter. After discussing these matters, the group presents their top issues and ideas to the US Space Force senior leadership.
The inaugural event, held four weeks ago at Andrews Air Force Base, was attended by 59 Guardians and Airmen supporting US Space Force missions. I was deeply impressed and inspired by these Guardians and Airmen. They presented well-thought-out recommendations for a number of initiatives, such as a proposal for geographically separated units, ways to improve transparency and prioritization of assignment opportunities, and suggestions for strengthening the connection between operations readiness and lifecycle sustainment of our systems. They also briefed us on how the US Space Force could improve the assignment and utilization of our 'supercoders'. I'm very proud of these efforts and I hope the Guardian Field Forum inspires a continuous exchange of ideas at the unit level.
But we must remember that none of us is as good as all of us. We need to adopt a spirit of partnering to win because a winning partnership needs to be mutually supportive. For industry, this means being witting and supportive of the analytical work we're doing on our Force design. But partnerships also need to be a two-way street, so the Space Force must continue to work to improve our methods and mindsets as well. We are actively seeking opportunities for partners to align with us early, including in that Force design work and in our concepts and war games. For example, a recent war game included 14 companies and seven international partners. The team worked through how commercial augmentation could help military forces fill gaps, provide rapid replenishment, or substitute capabilities during wartime.
As the war game and Guardian Field Forum have shown, our young Guardians are the key to out-innovating and out-thinking our competitors. I encourage those in the audience looking to compete for future material solutions for Space Force challenges to include our Guardians early and often in the development process. I plan to continue exploring programs that feature Guardians as industry fellows or in embedded educational opportunities. However, just having people work together isn't enough. The Space Force also needs to identify the technology areas where we need help. To this end, we are in the early planning stages of a science and technology summit where we intend to bring together the department's S&T organizations with industry to share ideas, concepts, and work to develop a shared understanding and prioritized goals.
To win, our partnerships must extend beyond summits, war games, and contracts. We are all shared users of a domain that must be used responsibly and with an eye towards safety, security, and stability. That means there's an operational component to this as well. At Vandenberg and Schriever Space Force bases, we have cells in our ops centers to ensure we are integrating commercial and international partner capabilities into daily operations.
In these cells, we plan out collaborative maneuvers or discuss how to best respond to aggressive activity within the domain. Guardians like First Lieutenant Olivia Jarvis are leveraging commercial space domain awareness platforms to detect and geolocate electromagnetic interference. She can then quickly disseminate this information. Lieutenant Jarvis supports US Space Command's commercial operation cell, located at the Catalyst Campus in downtown Colorado Springs. This commercially-facing operations floor is outside of our secured facilities and is part of a public-private partnership. The Space Force is committed to expanding efforts like these to ensure we collectively build an interoperable, transparent, and safe domain.
As I conclude my talk today, I want to emphasize our key asymmetric advantages. Although we face some serious challenges, we have several strategic advantages that our competitors lack. First, if we can shake off the comfort generated by our expertise and past successes, and leverage new methods and mindsets, we can tap into the innovative engine that is the American industrial base. Second, we have a network of international partners and coalitions that add to our strength. The conflict in Ukraine has demonstrated the power of international cooperation and the deterrent effect it can have in the face of aggression. And finally, for the United States Space Force, our most significant advantage is the talent of our remarkable workforce – the character, courage, connection, and commitment of the Guardians of the United States Space Force are unparalleled and will always rise to the occasion whenever and wherever the call to action comes.
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