Below are notes from The Impossible State Live Podcast hosted by Korea Chair, on South Korea’s Role in a Taiwan Contingency. The speakers included Victor Cha, Senior Vice President for Asia and Korea Chair & Dr. Sungmin Cho, Professor, Daniel K. Inouye Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies (DKI APCSS)
The objective of this discussion was to discuss South Korea's role in deterring North Korea's opportunistic aggression in a Taiwan contingency and providing rear area support.
Speakers
Victor Cha, Senior Vice President for Asia and Korea Chair
Dr. Sungmin Cho, Professor, Daniel K. Inouye Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies (DKI APCSS)
01 September, 2023
Victor Cha:
Introduction Statement:
-Today, we're going to talk about an important and difficult topic, I think, and that is South Korea's role in the Taiwan contingency. And we have today with us one of the few authors whose published on this particular issue.
On South Korea's Potential Support in Taiwan Contingency
-There is a wide range of rear area support that South Korea can provide. The difficult question is then how South Korea can maintain deterrence against North Korea while providing all these rear area support.
On the Division of Labor and Alliance Management
-I would counter-argue that it is not really decoupling of the missions or capabilities, but it is more about division of labor and. Burden sharing because there is a new reality that we are facing.
-It is the new reality that the alliance should manage to adjust. So the discussion of Taiwan's contingency is already whether the crisis happens or not, the discussion itself is an issue of alliance management.
On South Korea's Strategic Positioning
-South Korea cannot do nothing and South Korea cannot do everything.
-Then the middle ground is that South Korea should do something and the rear area support is the only viable option that South Korea can do in Taiwan. Contingency.
On North Korea's Stance on Taiwan Contingency
-I see this as a signal that North Korea is ready to support Beijing in the Taiwan contingency. And we can think of many reasons why North Korea is motivated to do that.
On North Korea's Military Ambitions
-Kim Jong-un laid out what he wants to do to improve North Korea's military capabilities. And he gave all the menu items like developing a super large hydrogen bomb, hypersonic missile vehicle that he already did and also miniaturizing nuclear weapons.
On the China-North Korea Dynamic during a Crisis
-The interesting dynamic here is that even if Beijing opposes North Korea's military provocation during time of contingency, North Korea has a long history of ignoring whatever Beijing's preferences and when it needs it, just do whatever it needs to do.
On Deterrence Against North Korea
-The difficult question is then how South Korea can maintain deterrence against North Korea while providing all these rear area support.
-So there should be an inevitable loss of capabilities for the US forces, Korea as well as South Korea to deter North Korea.
On Moral and Strategic Obligations
-So there will be a question about 3D and also a question about the moral obligation that the US has been so invested in defending South Korea and now South Korea refused to support us.
-And also the consequence of that crisis will be that if China dominates it, the sea lines of communication, which is so important for South Korea's economy, will be dominated by the illiberal regime in Beijing.
On North Korea's Involvement and Motivations
-North Korea is ready to support Beijing in the Taiwan contingency.
-And also North Korea can pressure South Korea very significantly when there is a crisis in Taiwan Strait and then North Korea conducts another military provocation.
On Unintended Consequences and Repercussions
-Then China will surely retaliate using its naval forces and also using its missiles attacking South Korean bases.
-If South Korea directly joins the fight and China retaliates, that means the creation of two front lines Taiwan contingency expense to the Korean crisis.
On the Balance of Military Commitment
-The difficult question is then how South Korea can maintain deterrence against North Korea while providing all these rear area support.
-So South Korea cannot do nothing and South Korea cannot do everything. Then the middle ground is that South Korea should do something and the rear area support is the only viable option that South Korea can do in Taiwan Contingency.
On Change in South Korean Perception of China
-They have a much less favorable view of China these days. There was a time that South Korean people had an even more favorable view of China than the US. Like mid 2000 or early 2000.
On South Korea's Wish to Avoid Conflict
-Even though South Korea, their ultimate wish is to not to see any contingency in Taiwan's trade. They know very well how tragic the situation can be.
On the Historical Tragedy of Conflict and National Unification
-That Chinese soldiers are killing Taiwanese soldiers and people in the name of national unification. That tragedy has been already shared. I mean, South Korean people experienced that.
Dr. Sungmin Cho
On South Korea's Official Stance on Taiwan Contingency
-South Korea's vice defense minister, Shimomura, last year commented that South Korea has no discussion with US forces, Korea or US government at all about South Korea's role in Taiwan.
On the Concept of Rear Area Support
-It is by definition, South Korea will not join war fighting or combat missions. South Korea can provide a rear area of support, which includes base access or provision of ammunition, including cruise missiles, javelins and also non-combat evacuations.
On South Korea's Technological Contributions
-South Korea can also support US reconnaissance capabilities because South Korea has a technological advancement in unmanned aerial vehicles or unmanned surface vessels.
On the Implications for the U.S. and Regional Stability
-The view was uniform, that this would have major implications for the credibility of the United States and the stability of order in the region.
On Political Leadership and Bureaucratic Leanings in South Korea
-At the same time, though, my sense is that President Yoon is even more forward leaning on these issues than his bureaucracy is.
On South Korean Public Opinion on Relevant Issues
-All we hear about when we hear about the South Korean public is their views on nuclear weapons, because those have been widely publicized polls.
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